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By Gabriel Frank/MHN DAILY NEWS
Finance & Investment Featured National News
A lot more debt is coming to market this year, but key lenders and originators remain risk-averse.
If estimates prove true, multifamily real estate lenders and investors will be plenty active this year. At the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Finance Conference in San Diego, the organization’s research experts projected a strong year for originations, even if the economy continues to hobble along.
The GSEs are certainly ready, having adjusted both their strategies and product offerings to accommodate a strong, yet uncertain multifamily investment market.
The market’s brass tacks
MBA Chief Economist & Senior Vice President of Research and Business Development Mike Fratantoni kicked off the conference with the organization’s official economic outlook. In short, the industry can expect negligible changes for short-term interest rates and the 10-year Treasury but a dramatic uptick in lending volumes nonetheless.
“The Fed’s probably close to done, and I don’t expect the 10-year Treasury rate to move much either,” Fratantoni said, predicting only one more rate cut this year, even with the appointment of a more hawkish Federal Reserve chair.
The more dramatic movement is likely to take place on the transaction level, with the MBA forecasting more than $805 billion in loan originations, $399 billion of which will be multifamily alone. That’s a nearly 21 percent increase from 2025’s lending volumes for the sector, which topped off at $289 billion.
Judith Ricks, the organization’s associate vice president of commercial real estate research, attributed this change to both an increase in maturities, which are set to reach $300 billion this year, as well as a “massive growth in capital sources, especially during this recent period.” In 2025, the largest shares of debt came from banks, agency lenders and CMBS, which held 37 percent, 21 percent and 16 percent of outstanding debt, respectively.
Executives from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were optimistic about the lending landscape, yet realistic about what their commitments can accomplish. The development market, particularly on the affordable housing side, remains fraught with political risk at a time when rents continue to stagnate.
With their loan purchase caps up $15 billion from last year, the agencies have a bit more breathing room, but they remain risk-averse and return-focused. “It’s always a challenge to thread that needle with our volume cap and goals,” said Bill Buskirk, senior vice president & multifamily chief operating officer at Fredde Mac during a breakout session on the agencies’ priorities. “We can’t throw a bunch of darts at the board to see what hits.”
Strong rent growth and proportionate capital costs are a top priority for the agencies, even in the affordable housing space. “We have an eye for accomplishing housing goals, but we also need appropriate returns,” said Chuck Walker, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president & chief operating officer. “It’s about striking a balance and having an eye for investment. Even though we want to do a lot of volume, we need a disciplined risk management approach.”
Freddie Mac plans to offer more in the market-rate space, giving borrowers access to more funds that cover lease-ups and other pre-stabilization pain points. “We’re meeting the market as we can, and that means tweaking existing products,” Buskirk said.
Internally, Fannie plans to innovate in its fraud detection, property inspection and appraisal tasks, leaning more into automation as a means to drive its cut down on risk.
Despite the risks that market-rate and affordable housing stakeholders face, originators believe that 2026 will be a frothy one for investors. Phil Maniscalco, head of production at Wells Fargo, believes some sales could resemble “knife fights,” with buyers competing fiercely for prime inventory.
“We know the demand is there, but the question is if supply will be there,” concluded Sheri Thompson, Walker & Dunlop’s executive vice president & head of affordable housing.